Week 1 Grade
KO
+39 pts over our number
Main Event was a Chase dud from perfect. Sleeper Bout went cold. Week 2 is for the KO.
MAIN EVENT
Top weekly EV with a real spike week attached.
Josh AllenEV 24.8+11 ptsKO 35.7
Lamar JacksonEV 23.1+2 ptsHIT 25
Jahmyr GibbsEV 23.4+8 ptsKO 31.1
Bijan RobinsonEV 19.6+8 ptsKO 27.3
Ja'Marr ChaseEV 22.9−21 ptsDUD 2.2
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaEV 18.8+3 ptsKO 22.2
Trey McBrideEV 16.6+3 ptsKO 205 KO · 1 HIT · 0 DRAW · 1 DUD
CO-MAIN
High EV, quieter ceiling. Start them, don't sweat them.
Dak PrescottEV 20.2−5 ptsDUD 15.4Derrick HenryEV 16.1+19 ptsKO 34.8
Kenneth WalkerEV 15.5+17 ptsKO 32.6Chase BrownEV 14.6+2 ptsKO 16.3CeeDee LambEV 16.3−3 ptsDUD 12.9Travis KelceEV 11.2−3 ptsDUD 8.63 KO · 0 HIT · 0 DRAW · 3 DUD
SLEEPER BOUT
Cheap names with a live path to a spike.
Jared GoffEV 18.1−2 ptsDRAW 16.4
Jaylen WarrenEV 11.3−4 ptsDUD 7.8
Parker WashingtonEV 11.4+5 ptsKO 16.8Mark AndrewsEV 11.2−4 ptsDUD 6.91 KO · 0 HIT · 1 DRAW · 2 DUD
How we grade ourselves
Every name on this card gets graded against its projected points EV once the games are final.KO= beat EV by 10%+.HIT= beat EV by 0-10%.DRAW= even, 0% vs EV.DUD= missed by 10%+, or didn't play.
Missed the Card
KOs we didn't put on the poster
4th & Huddle
Full Sunday/Monday card locks Saturday 8:00 PM ET. Grades Tuesday morning.
Weekly EV, spike chance, and matchup grades come from the same EV model behind the rankings.