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Fight Card · Week 1
LOCKEDWeek 1 start sit, sleepers, and fades — who we think scores.
Card is locked. Come back Monday to see who got KO, HIT, DRAW, or DUD vs EV.
Updated · Week 1 · LOCKED
MAIN EVENT
Top weekly EV with a real spike week attached.
PLAYEROPPGRADEEVSPIKE
QB1
Josh Allen
Josh Allen@HOU
TOUGH PASS D
24.7
31%
—
QB1Josh Allen24.7
Josh Allen24.7@HOUTOUGH PASS D31% spike
RB1
Jahmyr Gibbs
Jahmyr GibbsNO
EVEN RUN D
22.8
40%
—
RB1Jahmyr Gibbs22.8
Jahmyr Gibbs22.8NOEVEN RUN D40% spike
RB2
Bijan Robinson
Bijan Robinson@PIT
EVEN RUN D
19.9
40%
—
RB2Bijan Robinson19.9
Bijan Robinson19.9@PITEVEN RUN D40% spike
WR1
Ja'Marr ChaseQ
Ja'Marr ChaseQTB
EVEN PASS D
19.3
36%
—
WR1Ja'Marr ChaseQ19.3
Ja'Marr ChaseQ19.3TBEVEN PASS D36% spike
WR2
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaNE
TOUGH PASS D
18.6
42%
—
WR2Jaxon Smith-Njigba18.6
Jaxon Smith-Njigba18.6NETOUGH PASS D42% spike
TE1
Brock Bowers
Brock BowersMIA
SOFT PASS D
18.2
33%
—
TE1Brock Bowers18.2
Brock Bowers18.2MIASOFT PASS D33% spike
CO-MAIN
High EV, quieter ceiling. Start them, don't sweat them.
PLAYEROPPGRADEEVSPIKE
QB2
Lamar Jackson
Lamar Jackson@IND
EVEN PASS D
22.6
30%
—
QB2Lamar Jackson22.6
Lamar Jackson22.6@INDEVEN PASS D30% spike
WR5Amon-Ra St. Brown
Amon-Ra St. BrownNO
EVEN PASS D
17.4
43%
—
WR5Amon-Ra St. Brown17.4
Amon-Ra St. Brown17.4NOEVEN PASS D43% spike
RB3
Jonathan Taylor
Jonathan TaylorBAL
TOUGH RUN D
17.3
39%
—
RB3Jonathan Taylor17.3
Jonathan Taylor17.3BALTOUGH RUN D39% spike
WR3
Puka NacuaQ
Puka NacuaQSF
EVEN PASS D
17.3
37%
—
WR3Puka NacuaQ17.3
Puka NacuaQ17.3SFEVEN PASS D37% spike
RB6
Saquon Barkley
Saquon BarkleyWAS
SOFT RUN D
16.6
39%
—
RB6Saquon Barkley16.6
Saquon Barkley16.6WASSOFT RUN D39% spike
TE3
Trey McBride
Trey McBride@LAC
TOUGH PASS D
17.2
39%
—
TE3Trey McBride17.2
Trey McBride17.2@LACTOUGH PASS D39% spike
SLEEPER BOUT
Cheap names with a live path to a spike.
PLAYEROPPGRADEEVSPIKE
WR17
Tetairoa McMillan
Tetairoa McMillanCHI
EVEN PASS D
13.2
41%
—
WR17Tetairoa McMillan13.2
Tetairoa McMillan13.2CHIEVEN PASS D41% spike
RB15
Javonte Williams
Javonte Williams@NYG
SOFT RUN D
13.6
40%
—
RB15Javonte Williams13.6
Javonte Williams13.6@NYGSOFT RUN D40% spike
RB19
David Montgomery
David MontgomeryBUF
SOFT RUN D
12.5
39%
—
RB19David Montgomery12.5
David Montgomery12.5BUFSOFT RUN D39% spike
WR16Zay FlowersQ
Zay FlowersQ@IND
EVEN PASS D
12.1
37%
—
WR16Zay FlowersQ12.1
Zay FlowersQ12.1@INDEVEN PASS D37% spike
Weekly EV, spike chance, and matchup grades come from the same 4D model behind the rankings. Locks Saturday 11:59pm ET. Grades after Monday night.