Colston Loveland
TE·CHI
12.56 → 15.22
+2.66
Spike 35%+13.4Role upgrade
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Daily EV Movers
Who gained or lost the most Expected Value overnight.
Sample data · live deltas start once two daily snapshots exist
Equity = lift to your title odds · Spike = chance of a league-winning week · Board = take-him-now score
Projection only — not yet graded
No games have been played against these numbers yet. EV is a modelled estimate until Week 1. From kickoff on, every week's EV is frozen before games and graded against real results — accuracy shows up right here.
What is EV?
Most rankings just give you one number — a projection. EV (Expected Value) is smarter.
We look at everything that could actually happen with a player:
Terrible game→Quiet but usable→Exactly as expected→Huge week→League-winning explosion→Misses the game
We give each of those outcomes a real chance of happening (and those chances always add up to 100%). Then we calculate the average result.
That’s EV.
Why it matters
Two players can have the same projection, but one is much more likely to explode or much more likely to miss time. EV catches that difference. A higher EV (especially with a higher “spike” chance) means more real upside.
Top 8 EV Risers
EV change · 24h
Brock Bowers
TE·LV
17.64 → 18.56
+0.92
Spike 35%+3.8Role upgrade
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
WR·SEA
19.08 → 19.57
+0.48
Spike 41%+2.1Target share ↑
Trey McBride
TE·ARI
16.92 → 17.39
+0.47
Spike 40%+2.0Target share ↑
Puka Nacua
WR·LAR
17.70 → 18.16
+0.46
Spike 41%+2.2Vegas total ↑
Ja'Marr Chase
WR·CIN
21.87 → 22.21
+0.34
Spike 42%+1.1Target share ↑
Bijan Robinson
RB·ATL
19.64 → 19.77
+0.13
Spike 39%+0.3Vegas total ↑
Ashton Jeanty
RB·LV
14.68 → 14.81
+0.13
Spike 39%+0.5Vegas total ↑
Top 8 EV Fallers
EV change · 24h
CeeDee Lamb
WR·DAL
15.63 → 15.24
-0.39
Spike 36%-2.1Vegas total ↓
Brock Purdy
QB·SF
18.81 → 18.57
-0.25
Spike 28%-1.5Vegas total ↓
Jahmyr Gibbs
RB·DET
22.98 → 22.75
-0.23
Spike 40%-0.5Vegas total ↓
Travis Kelce
TE·KC
10.95 → 10.77
-0.17
Spike 35%-1.2Target share ↓
Kenneth Walker
RB·KC
15.37 → 15.24
-0.13
Spike 39%-0.4Durability flag
Rashee Rice
WR·KC
14.20 → 14.07
-0.13
Spike 38%-0.8Role downgrade
Derrick Henry
RB·BAL
15.90 → 15.78
-0.12
Spike 40%-0.3Vegas total ↓
James Cook
RB·BUF
16.21 → 16.14
-0.06
Spike 40%-0.2Role downgrade
Best value on the board
Projection vs draft cost · 100 = par
Nico Collins
WR·HOUValue 83
14.02 → 14.34
+0.32
Spike 38%+1.8Vegas total ↑EV #9 vs market #16
Drake Maye
QB·NEValue 117
19.90 → 20.15
+0.24
Spike 29%+1.4Vegas total ↑EV #5 vs market #10
Tyler Warren
TE·INDValue 70
11.01 → 12.04
+1.03
Spike 38%+6.8Role upgradeEV #4 vs market #8
Where we disagree with the consensus
Our locked projection vs the public number
Nico Collins
WR·HOUValue 83Edge +7
14.02 → 14.34
+0.32
Spike 38%+1.8Vegas total ↑EV #9 vs market #16
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR·DETValue 100Edge +6
16.91 → 17.19
+0.28
Spike 43%+0.9RZ share ↑EV #5 vs market #11
Justin Jefferson
WR·MINValue 100Edge +5
16.74 → 17.18
+0.44
Spike 40%+2.2Target share ↑EV #4 vs market #9
Drake Maye
QB·NEValue 117Edge +5
19.90 → 20.15
+0.24
Spike 29%+1.4Vegas total ↑EV #5 vs market #10
Tyler Warren
TE·INDValue 70Edge +4
11.01 → 12.04
+1.03
Spike 38%+6.8Role upgradeEV #4 vs market #8